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Asmar, M E, Hanna, A S and Whited, G C (2011) New Approach to Developing Conceptual Cost Estimates for Highway Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 942–9.
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Estimation; Construction costs; Statistics; Conceptual design; Highways and roads; Estimation; Costs; Statistics; Conceptual design; Highway and road construction;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000355
- Abstract:
Developing a reliable project cost estimate is a challenge for any state highway agency (SHA), especially at the conceptual stage. A conceptual estimate is defined in this paper as the estimate prepared at the point at which only 30% of the design is complete. This paper describes a statistical approach to producing a reliable conceptual cost estimate when few project design details have been finalized and many assumptions still form the basis of the estimate. This approach used an analysis similar to the program evaluation and review technique (PERT), which is more commonly used in project scheduling, to assign certainty factors to cost estimates. The approach uses a combination of historical bid data for major roadway items whose quantities can be estimated early in the development process and historical percentages for other major components of the project, called allowance and contingency factors. The paper focuses on (1) the methodology developed to analyze the historical bid data; (2) the analysis of 14 highway corridors with 77 projects whose as-bid construction costs were more than $830 million; and (3) a cross-validation of the approach used to validate the accuracy of the predictive model. By using a PERT-type technique, construction costs were accurately predicted at the conceptual stage within
Bogus, S M, Diekmann, J E, Molenaar, K R, Harper, C, Patil, S and Lee, J S (2011) Simulation of Overlapping Design Activities in Concurrent Engineering. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 950–7.
Cass, D and Mukherjee, A (2011) Calculation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Highway Construction Operations by Using a Hybrid Life-Cycle Assessment Approach: Case Study for Pavement Operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 1015–25.
Cheng, Y, Yu, C and Wang, H (2011) . Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 933–41.
Hallowell, M R and Calhoun, M E (2011) Interrelationships among Highly Effective Construction Injury Prevention Strategies. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 985–93.
Jin, X (2011) Model for Efficient Risk Allocation in Privately Financed Public Infrastructure Projects Using Neuro-Fuzzy Techniques. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 1003–14.
Kim, B and Reinschmidt, K F (2011) Combination of Project Cost Forecasts in Earned Value Management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 958–66.
Marques, R C and Berg, S (2011) Risks, Contracts, and Private-Sector Participation in Infrastructure. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 925–32.
Song, Y and Chua, D K H (2011) Requirement and Availability Time-Window Analysis of Intermediate Function. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 967–75.
Unsal, H I and Taylor, J E (2011) Absorptive Capacity of Project Networks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 994–1002.
Young, D A, Haas, C T, Goodrum, P and Caldas, C (2011) Improving Construction Supply Network Visibility by Using Automated Materials Locating and Tracking Technology. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 976–84.